Next Generation Batteries Are Imminent

When we talk about EVs, it is reasonable to suggest that at their current level of price and performance, whoever wants to use one has already made the purchase. After a decade of rapid year-over-year growth, EV sales in California in 2024 were actually a bit lower than they were in 2023. There aren’t enough public charging stations, it takes too long to charge them, they cost too much for most buyers, and there are ongoing concerns about range and safety. We are waiting for the next generation, and without it, the market for EVs is bounded. But the technology is rapidly changing.

As it is, the 2025 Tesla Model 3 sells for a base price of $44,130. It has a stated range of 342 miles on a 75 kilowatt-hour battery. At a fast charging station, drivers can add 12 miles of range per minute (compared to 150-200 miles per minute for a gasoline powered car). The Model 3 battery weighs 1,060 pounds (481 kilograms), which is an energy density of 156 watt-hours per kilogram.

These variables, charging time and energy density, along with price, range, safety, durability and longevity, are the constraints that limit EV adoption. All six of these variables are primarily dependent on battery technology.

One of the world’s premier automakers, Toyota, was a relatively late entrant to the EV rollout. For years they limited their battery innovation primarily to building some of the world’s best hybrid vehicles based on price and performance. But Toyota is planning to leapfrog its competitors by introducing so-called solid state batteries by 2027, and they claim these batteries will have an energy density of 400 watt-hours per kilogram.

The implications of these claims is that the next generation of EVs is imminent. Theoretically, a battery pack weighing 1,000 pounds with an energy density of 400 Wh/kg, at 4.0 KWh/mile, would have a range of 725 miles on a single charge. You could drive from Silicon Valley to Los Angeles, and back again, without ever stopping to charge your vehicle. That’s what’s on the way.

Solid state batteries have other advantages. It is a broad term encompassing a variety of engineering designs, but they all share one characteristic: the electrolyte, through which electrons pass as the cell charges or discharges, is solid. This makes it less flammable, and able to withstand greater extremes in temperature.

Crucially, solid state batteries also have much faster charging times. Samsung, also heavily invested in the race to manufacture solid state batteries, claims their most recent 500 Wh/kg prototype “could power electric vehicles with a 600-mile range, charge in 9 minutes, and have a lifespan of 20 years.” That’s 67 miles of range per minute, a charging rate likely to be acceptable to far more consumers.

Although solid state designs appear to hold the most promise, it is just one of many significant innovations happening now in EV battery technology. The trend is obvious: the EV revolution has just begun. Many urgent questions – resource use, recycling costs, weight, safety, convenience, range, and requisite supporting infrastructure – may be answered surprisingly soon. What about stationary batteries?

For the electric age to truly arrive, stationary storage of electricity also requires next generation technology. That, too, is happening fast.

When it comes to feasibility, the great advantage of stationary batteries over EV batteries is that energy density is not a major concern. The Moss Landing battery farm sits on about 140 acres, with an installed storage capacity of 3 gigawatt-hours. California’s official goal is a total state battery discharge capacity of 50 gigawatts by 2045, which at 4 hours of discharge per battery (that will increase), equates to 200 gigawatt-hours of storage. Using Moss Landing’s footprint as a guide, 200 GWh of stationary battery storage would only use up 15 square miles. But the footprint of battery farms will be significantly reduced if the grid utilizes private, decentralized storage at homes and on EVs to collect and discharge electricity.

Then again, Moss Landing’s battery fire in January 2025 knocked out 300 megawatts (1.2 GWh) and terrorized communities for miles around. But while the lithium ion batteries installed at Moss Landing and elsewhere are becoming safer, there are alternatives that offer greater safety and cost less.

In competition with lithium ion technology are sodium ion batteries. While these batteries have a lower energy density (i.e., 200 GWh might require 50 square miles instead of 15 square miles), they use sodium instead of lithium, a mineral that is 1,000 times more abundant in the earth. Aluminum can be used for both charge collectors, replacing much more expensive metals. Sodium ion batteries also generate less heat, reducing the risk of fire.

Another stationary battery technology is the so-called flow battery, which instead of storing electrons in the charge collectors (anode and cathode), store them within a liquid electrolyte. Manufacturers of flow batteries claim they are safer, longer lasting, and cheaper than the alternatives.

Also interesting are what are referred to as iron air batteries. These batteries are still in the prototype phase, but manufacturers claim they will cost one-tenth as much as lithium ion batteries. The main materials they use are iron, water, and air, and they store and discharge electricity by utilizing the natural rusting process. But these batteries do not have a good “round trip efficiency,” i.e., only about 60 percent of the electricity used to charge them can be recovered when they are discharged, compared with over 90 percent for lithium ion batteries, 80 percent for sodium ion batteries, and 70 percent for flow batteries.

With massive storage capacity, intermittent renewables become a more feasible source of electricity. Competitive and decentralized private investment in photovoltaics along with EV and stationary batteries will push rates down. On the grid and on the road, the electric age is coming.