Governor Newsom’s Redistricting Plan Would Not Be Cheap
Gavin Newsom has floated the idea of redistricting California between Censuses. The goal would be to offset potential Republican gains from a mid-decade redistricting plan being discussed in Texas. While there are valid political arguments for and against Newsom’s plan, the fiscal case is clear: mid-decade redistricting will cost California about a quarter of a billion dollars at a time of budgetary stress.
The bulk of the cost will come from holding a special election. This is necessary because voters previously amended the state constitution to require district lines be drawn each decade by a non-partisan commission. Newsom would need a new constitutional amendment to redraw the lines in time for the 2026 election, and, with no regularly scheduled election this year, he’d need a special statewide election to vote on the plan.
The last statewide special election was the unsuccessful recall of 2021. That election cost a total of $200.2 million according to the Secretary of State. Inflation since then means we can expect significantly higher costs in 2025. (Postal rates alone have risen sharply, from 58 cents 78 cents compared to just 58 cents in 2021.) A back-of-the-envelope estimate suggests a 20 percent increase, or about $240 million.
If voters approve the redistricting, the state will then have to spend more money to implement it. The Citizen’s Redistricting Commission spent $17.9 million to redraw lines after the 2020 Census. A legislative controlled redistricting may cost less because it would not require compensating independent commissioners. On the other hand, it could cost more due to general inflation and the need to complete the project on a very short timeline.
Between a special election and the costs of actual redistricting , we’re looking at an unbudgeted expenditure of about $250 million. And this expenditure will take place at a time when both the Legislative Analyst’s Office and Department of Finance are predicting multi-year deficits.
Marc Joffe is a Visiting Fellow at California Policy Center and the president of the Contra Costa Taxpayers Association.