Mike “Mish” Shedlock is an American investment advisor and financial commentator. He operates the blog MishTalk.com, offering economic trend analysis. Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for Sitka Pacific Capital Management, an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. He is also a contributing “professor” on Minyanville, a community site focused on economic and financial education.
Editor’s Note: Why is commentary about Illinois relevant to California? Because if you read this, written by economics blogger Mike Shedlock, all you have to do is substitute “California” into every sentence where “Illinois” appears, and it would still be accurate. The only thing missing from California is an entrenched speaker of the state legislature –...
Editor’s Note: If you think what’s happening in Illinois can’t happen here, think again. For starters, read these two studies by the California Policy Center, (1) “Calculating California’s Total State and Local Government Debt,” and (2) “Comprehensive Review of California School Bonds.” While experts disagree over what is a reasonable rate-of-return projection for pension fund...
Editor’s Note: This analysis by economics blogger Mike Shedlock clearly shows why government employee pensions are taking an awful risk by continuing to forecast annual investment returns of 7.0% or more per year. In his first chart Shedlock points out how between 2008 and 2014 the aggregate value of state and local government worker pension...
Editor’s Note: California and Illinois have a lot in common. Both have diverse, resilient economies, both are large states with most of the population concentrated in urban areas, and both have been controlled for decades by public sector unions. The crucial difference, of course, is that at least in Illinois, there is a reform minded...
The Volcker Alliance, founded by former Fed chairman Paul Volcker has sounded an alarm over budget gimmicks. The alliance seeks Truth and Integrity in State Budgeting. In the report, the Volcker Alliance examines in detail the budgeting practices of California, New Jersey and Virginia, assessing the effectiveness of each state’s practices. The report highlights the...
In bankruptcy, the federal courts have ruled that cities can reduce pension obligations. They can, but they don’t have to. In Detroit, bondholders were sacrificed to maintain police and fire pensions with minimal haircuts. On Monday, U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Meredith Jury ruled against bondholders in favor of Calpers in the San Bernardino bankruptcy. She acknowledged...
Editor’s Note: Notwithstanding recent court challenges that could go either way, one way to negotiate meaningful steps towards financially sustainable defined benefit pensions, i.e., reductions or suspensions of COLAs, prospective reductions in the multiplier, increased employee contributions towards the unfunded liability and not just towards the normal contribution, etc., is to offer to reduce OPEB...
Editor’s Note: Nearly everything described in this lengthy expose on the perilous financial condition of the City of Chicago, and the ways it has been obscured for so long, also neatly applies in many if not most of California’s large cities. Also directly applicable to California’s cities are the author’s descriptions of how the unions representing...
Editor’s Note: This article quotes a New Hampshire police officer, disgruntled about his pension benefit reductions. He claims – and his Facebook quote appears below – that if he’d put 12% of his pay into a 401K he would “be better off.” Here’s what he expected: To work till age 47, with 22 years of...
Editor’s Note: When it happened in Detroit, they said it couldn’t happen in Chicago. Most Californians will agree that our economy is bigger, and more diverse and resilient than that of Illinois or Michigan. But pension fund solvency relies on perpetual bull market rates of return – and the moment the market hiccoughs again, California’s...
In what may be a first (otherwise an extreme rarity), a substantial force within a union has mobilized against a pay hike to $9.00 per hour from essentially nothing. “Nothing” you say? Yes, it happens in small non-profit theaters that pay aspiring actors $7 to $15 per performance. Rehearsal time does not count. Curiously, but rightfully...
Just as Detroit is coming out of bankruptcy, the entire county is about to go under. This will be especially aggravating because Detroit pensioners are already extremely upset with the pension haircuts they received. In the “too late to complain now” category, Wayne County now seeks to overturn the Detroit bankruptcy settlement. Lawyers will have...
The city of Scranton hiked property taxes 57% and garbage collection fees 69% to shore up a police and fire pension funds that will run out of money anyway, in 5 years and 2.5 years respectively. Amusingly (to outsiders) but certainly not to Scranton taxpayers, Scranton Pensions Increased as Much as 80 Percent as a result of...
Exceptionally good news from California today: A federal judge ruled Calpers claim of “Sanctity of Pensions” is invalid. Today’s ruling went even further than the bankrupt city of Stockton originally sought in court. For details, please consider the New York Times article In Ruling on California Town’s Bankruptcy, Judge Challenges Sanctity of Pensions. A federal bankruptcy...
a new form will got here